It’s not going to be the storm nightmares are made of, but it could have been.
Hurricane Erin is heading our way, but is forecast to turn more to the north then to the northeast – skirting past us in dangerously close fashion.
So close, in fact, that Cape Hatteras now finds itself in the cone of probability.
As of late Monday morning, Erin had finished a eye wall replacement period and had regained strength. It is again a Cat 4 hurricane – the first hurricane of the season – and has winds of 130 mph.
There was another bump to the west in forecasts models, meaning the coast could see gusts to tropical force through the middle of the week.
According to the National Hurricane Center, large and “life threatening waves and rip currents” will start hitting the coast Tuesday afternoon and night. The worst of the event will take place Wednesday and Thursday, although offshore swells will be big and powerful through late week or the weekend.
Surf built by high northeast winds should pound the shoreline with swells upwards of 10 feet. But with no offshore winds (blowing from the land to the sea) to clean them up, the waves will be sloppy and dangerous.
Offshore, the enlargement of Erin’s wind field will likely cause waves to 15-20 feet for two or three days. Even after the cyclone passes, waves of about 10 feet could be around for a couple of days.
Those conditions are going to cause problems for the East Coast Surfing Championships, now underway, and the Virginia Beach Billfish Tournament scheduled to start Wednesday out of Rudee Inlet.
Whew! That’s a handful.
So what’s all this mean for the average boater? Quite a bit, actually.
Strong northeast winds likely will cause minor to moderate flooding inside the Chesapeake Bay and local inlets – especially during periods of high tide.
So if you keep your vessel moored at a local dock, put some slack in your lines to allow for rising water levels.
Heavy rainfall isn’t likely, but there might be a few showers. Ironically, rain chances will be worse tonight and Tuesday ahead of the system.
Make sure your bilge pump is working and turned on just in case.
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