Others have already thrown their hats in the ring.
But anybody who follows the weather with any intensity and knowledge has been nothing shy of anxious.
The National Hurricane Center’s announcement of its 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season predictions.
The agency, on Thursday in a live webinar presentation, the door to what might happen this year was opened.
The NHC called for an above average season with 13 to 19 named storms of 39 miles-per-hour, 6-10 hurricanes of 74 mph or higher and 3-5 that turn into major storms of at least 111 mph.
“Everything is in place for an above average season,” Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service, said in a Thursday-morning webinar. “People need to remember, it only takes one.
“There are no ‘Just a,’ no just a tropical storm, no just a Cat 2 hurricane.”
Graham said there is a 60 percent chance of an above-average season.
Officially, the season runs from June 1 to the end of November, but if the past is any indicator, these sometimes brutal low pressure systems often form on the outside of that time frame.
The average year, according to data from the NHC, has 14.2 named storms – of which 7.2 become hurricanes and 3.2 major systems. The NHC uses storms from 1991 through 2020 to figure the averages.
Vast improvements have been made in the hurricane center’s forecasting, making forecasting more accurate and helpful.
“Our modeling has never been better,” Graham said. “We’ve made incredible strides. We got every one right last year.
“We’re ready for this.”
A month ago, Colorado State University unleashed the first anticipated forecast – calling for 17 named storms. Nine of those were predicted to turn into hurricanes, with four building to “major” status with winds of 111 miles-per-hour or greater and a rating of Category 3 or higher.
AccuWeather chimed in a few weeks later with a prediction of 13-17 storms, 7-10 hurricanes and a “handful” of major storms.
The Weather Company – which owns The Weather Channel that was originally the mastermind of The Virginian-Pilot – is calling for 19 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major systems.
While all of these forecasts call for a stronger than average season, many acknowledge that predictions are looking at a “less severe” season than last year.
“Predictions are calling for a less severe season than the 2024 forecast,” NHC officials said.
The 2024 season concluded with 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five major cyclones. Out of them all, five hurricanes made landfall in the United States.
While cyclones to more than their share of damage, Graham emphasized that flooding was the biggest cause of the loss of life.
“In fact, there are more deaths from rip tides and currents than from storm surge,” he said.
There are various reasons why some seasons are worse then others. The lead players in forecasting are the La Niña and El Niño temperature variances in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
The 2024 season saw the highest Atlantic basin temperature average on record.
And while forecasters are saying that La Niña could be on its way out, a “neutral” aspect could be moving in and that neither La Niña or neutral were good for western Atlantic or Gulf storm formation.
The first named storm of the 2025 season will be Andrea, followed by 10 other names. The last two, Van and Wendy, have never been used. The fourth storm this year will be Dexter – a first-timer that replaces the deadly storm Dorian that was retired after 2019.
The NHC has a supplemental list if all 11 names are used, like in 2005 when 28 storms formed and 2020 when 30 earned names.
We’ll return next week with some information on how to prepare your boat for a storm’s arrival.
To read more of my work, go to: leetolliveroutdoors.com
