We’re due for a talk.
Nah … not the birds and the bees thing. Besides, if ya don’t know that one by now, you missed the boat.
Nope, it’s that time of year again, when the weather gurus and professional forecasters start talking about the upcoming hurricane season.
The Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025 is shaping up to be something we don’t want.
And that sentiment is becoming normal.
The season runs from June 1 to November 31. But we all know that sometimes things happen early or late.
And why 2025 is being labeled as an above average season.
The National Hurricane Center issues its predictions in May, but the Colorado State University forecast is one that’s been very respected.
CSU recently announced its predictions.
Averages are based on tallies from 1991 to 2020.
CSU weather folks are calling for 17 named storms this year – above the 14.4 average.
Of those, nine will grow to hurricane status – again, above the average of 7.2.
And of those storms, four are predicted to become major storms of between Category 3 and 5. The average for majors is 3.2.
The number of hurricane days is forecast as 35, while 27 is the norm. Nine of those days will be produced by major storms, above the 7.4 average.
Last year’s season was the deadliest on record since 2005, with 400 casualties – 241 in the United States.
There were 18 tropical storms last year, with 11 becoming hurricanes. Helene killed 241 people and was the deadliest hurricane since 2005 when Katrina took 1,400 lives.
Last year also qualifies as the third costliest on record – behind 2017 and 2005.
The season is usually worse when Eastern Pacific waters are cooler or neutral when La Niña is in control. Seasons aren’t as active when the water is warmer during El Niño.
There are a couple of new things with the NHC, amongst the biggest is a shrinking of the cone of uncertainty. That’s because the center’s predictions are becoming more and more accurate.
The weather service also will nave new rip current maps and a storm surge map for Hawaii.
And the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) will continue to be upgraded.
So as the season gets closer and the hurricane center comes out with its predictions, it’ll be time for another conversation – this one about dos, don’ts when it comes to preparedness.
When the NHC predictions are announced, it will be time for another talk – the one where looking ahead is much more important than looking to the past.
We’ll see you later for more hurricane predictionsTo read more of my work, go to: leetolliveroutdoors.com
